Abstract Details

Name: Prantika Bhowmik
Affiliation: IISER Kolkata
Conference ID: ASI2017_1105
Title : Prediction of Solar Cycle 25 Using A Surface Flux Transport Model
Authors and Co-Authors : Dibyendu Nandy Department of Physical Sciences, IISER Kolkata
Abstract Type : Oral
Abstract Category : Sun and the Solar System
Abstract : In the age of increasing relevance of space weather studies, predicting the strength of future solar cycles have become an important scientific goal. Though the intrinsic stochastic nature of the Sun restricts the range of predictability, the polar flux during cycle minima has proved to be quite successful for predicting the amplitude of the succeeding solar cycle. With our newly developed Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model, we perform a continuous century scale simulation starting from the solar cycle 15 (the year 1913) to the current cycle 24 (the year 2016). We utilize our calibrated simulation to run the model forward to predict the polar flux during the cycle 24 minimum using a synthetic sunspot data profile (constructed depending on the statistical properties of sunspots) for the descending phase of the current cycle. Based on this estimated polar flux, we present a predicted amplitude of the solar cycle 25 along with the probable occurrence time of cycle 25 maximum.