Abstract Details

Name: Nandita Srivastava
Affiliation: Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory
Conference ID: ASI2020_423
Title : INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS) for predicting the magnetic-field vectors of ICMEs
Authors and Co-Authors : Nandita Srivastava(1), Ranadeep Sarkar(1) and Nat Gopalswamy(2) (1)Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Udaipur (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
Abstract Type : Oral
Abstract Category : Sun and the Solar System
Abstract : We have developed an observationally constrained analytical model, the INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS), for predicting the magnetic-field vectors of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The main architecture of INFROS uses the near-Sun flux rope properties obtained from the observational parameters that are evolved through the model to estimate the magnetic field vectors of ICMEs at any heliocentric distance. As a proof of concept, we present the case study of an Earth-impacting CME which occurred on 2013 April 11. The predicted magnetic field profiles of the associated ICME show good agreement with those observed by the in-situ spacecraft. We have further validated INFROS model for the ICMEs detected by the radially aligned multiple spacecraft orbiting the Sun at different heliocentric distances. The in-situ observations of those ICMEs as detected in MESSENGER at ≈ 0.3 AU or VEX at ≈ 0.7 AU and STEREO ≈1 AU , help us to constrain the INFROS model parameters in order to predict the magnetic field-vectors of the ICME at 1 AU. INFROS shows promising results in the forecasting of Bz in near real-time. Compared to the time-consuming and computationally expensive MHD models, INFROS proves to be simpler and can be implemented as a practical space-weather forecasting tool.